The Real Story Group recently published an interesting diagram showing one of the ways that their 2011 Web Content Management report views the marketplace. Overall, I really like the approach of looking at the dual dimensions of the product and the supplier and it is interesting how the various products are placed on the diagram.
The one aspect that doesn't quite sit right with me is the implication that less investment in the product translates into less risk for the customers. In my opinion, there is extreme risk in products that are getting minimal development. Static-ness can be the first sign of decline. The supplier (be it a commercial software vendor or open source development community) may be losing interest in the product and is reducing investment. You could say that this risk is captured in the vendor restructuring dimension as downsizing the group managing the product. Still, I think that risk on the product development axis is higher on both extremes. In the example of the diagram, if Microsoft invested even less in their WCM Platform, I think risk would increase. Anyone remember Microsoft Content Management Server 2002?
BTW, I tried to add this as a comment to the post IntenseDebate appeared to be swallowing my comments :)